Tropical Storm Helene Could Become a Hurricane Threatening Florida and the Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Helene Could Become a Hurricane Threatening Florida and the Gulf Coast

By Jonathan Erdman, 3 Hours Ago

Key Points

• A region in the northwest Caribbean Sea is under close observation.
• A tropical storm is expected to form within the next day.
• It may strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico.
• Most models indicate potential landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
• The hurricane could be strong at landfall, with impacts lasting into Friday across parts of the South.

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Tropical Storm Helene is anticipated to develop in the western Caribbean Sea and could intensify into a significant hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week.

Residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida, should closely monitor this situation, stay updated on the evolving forecast, and prepare their hurricane plans.

Current Situation: A broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Caribbean Sea, with thunderstorms becoming more organized. This system is designated as Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which is actively monitoring its development. The NHC has also scheduled its first Hurricane Hunter mission for this afternoon.

Forecast Timeline:

• Monday-Tuesday: Forecast models suggest a tropical depression or storm could develop as early as late Monday or Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, Helene may approach Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba as a tropical storm or possibly a Category 1 hurricane, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to those areas.

• Wednesday: Helene may still impact Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba early in the day. The storm is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico, likely as a hurricane, with high surf and outer rainbands reaching parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

• Thursday: While there is some uncertainty, Helene is predicted to make landfall as a hurricane—possibly a strong one—on Thursday. Current models suggest landfall between Florida's Big Bend and the Panhandle, but impacts like storm surge, winds, and rain can extend far from the center. Some models show potential tracks as far east as Florida’s West Coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana, so everyone along the northern Gulf Coast should remain vigilant.

• Friday: The system will likely continue inland, weakening but still bringing locally heavy rainfall to parts of the Southeast.

Potential Intensity: Helene could become a powerful hurricane due to favorable conditions, including abundant warm water in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf's heat content is currently at record high levels for this time of year. Additionally, forecast models suggest that upper-level winds may be conducive to strengthening rather than shearing Helene's circulation, potentially allowing it to reach Category 3 intensity before landfall.

Rainfall Forecast: While specifics on storm surge and wind impacts are still uncertain, Helene is expected to bring heavy rainfall, especially along and east of its track. The heaviest rain is forecast for Thursday into Friday, with some bands arriving as early as Wednesday, raising the risk of flash flooding, particularly where heavy rain coincides with storm surge and higher terrain.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has covered national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and unusual weather are his specialties. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook, and Bluesky.